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Research, Update 13 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 19.10.2022

Photovoltaics remains at the center of the energy transition and sustainable development, and Comal, Italy’s leading player in the construction of large-scale plants, confirms the growth trend outlined by management. The Company generated revenues of € 22.95 million, compared to € 6.05 million in 1H21A, while the value of production, which also includes contract work in progress, amounted to € 38.40 million, showing the expansion due to the multiple contracts acquired in the period. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 2.16 million, up 20.5% compared to the figure as of June 30, 2021, but a decline is denoted in margins, which fell from 10.5% in 1H21A to 5.6% in 1H22A. Net Income was also positive, amounting to € 0.85 million (+8.7% vs 1H21A).

We modify our estimates for the current year and for the coming years. We estimate FY22E production value of € 60.00 million and EBITDA of € 3.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 6.0%. For subsequent years, we expect value of production to increase to € 105.00 million (CAGR 21A-25E: 25.66%) in FY25E, with EBITDA of € 7.60 million (EBITDA margin of 7.2%), up from € 3.39 million in FY21A (EBITDA margin of 8.1%). Significant increases in terms of sales, due to both recently acquired orders and increased operations in the production of tracker devices, although the same increases are also not seen in margins, which were penalized by issues related to the macroeconomic scenario, material shortage and price increases.

We have conducted the valuation of Comal equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 61.7 million. The equity value of Comal using market multiples is equal to € 30.3 million. The result is an average equity value of € 46.0 million. The target price is € 4.00 (prev. € 5,35), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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