For FY23A, the Group recorded a value of production of € 55.44 million, marking a growth of 97.6% compared to the FY22A figure of € 28.06 million. EBITDA came in at € -0.05 million, an increase of 95.9% compared to the FY22A figure, equal to € -1.20 million. The EBITDA margin went from -4.3% in FY22A to -0.1%, marking an increase of 4.2%. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 1.92 million, was € -1.97 million, down by 63.5% compared to the FY22A result (€ -1.20 million). The EBIT margin for FY23A was -3.5%, decreasing 0.7 percentage points from the FY22A value (-4.3%), mainly due to the resumption of the accounting of D&A for tangible and intangible fixed assets (suspended as per Legislative Decree 104/2020 until 2022), which had a total impact of approximately € 1.80 million.
In light of the results published in the FY23A annual report, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 84.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 2.55 million, corresponding to a margin of 3.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 222.00 million (CAGR 23A-27E: 41.5%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 19.45 million (corresponding to a margin of 8.8%), up from € -0.05 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of -0.1%).
We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Destination Italia based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 47.8 million. The target price is € 2.60, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.