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Research, Update 18 Oct 2023

UPDATE – 18.10.2023

The Group generated consolidated revenues of €30.21 million, marking a growth of 17.4% compared to 1H22A, which was €25.73 million. The value of production, including other revenues of €1.03 million, amounted to €31.24 million, reflecting an 18.7% increase compared to €26.33 million in 1H22A. EBITDA for 1H23A stood at € 3.61 million, a significant growth of 49.5% compared to the equivalent figure for 1H22A (€2.41 million), resulting in a margin on production value of 11.5% (9.2% in 1H22A). Net Income also showed a positive trend, totaling €1.27 million, an increase compared to the €0.54 million recorded in the previous fiscal year.

In light of the published 1H23A half-year results and the acquisition of Filostamp Srl, we have slightly adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate a consolidated FY23E value of production of € 61.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 7.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 11.5%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 73.00 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 11.0%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 9.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 13.0%), up from € 6.08 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 11.4%).

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Vimi Fasteners based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 47.9 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Vimi Fasteners is estimated at € 27.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). This results an average equity value of approximately € 37.4 million. The target price is € 2.75, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.
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