| The value of production for the first half-year of 2023 amounted to € 1.52 million, marking a notable increase compared to the 1H22A figure of € 0.10 million. EBITDA was negative by € -0.83 million, worsening compared to the 1H22A figure, negative by € -0.24 million. The EBITDA margin was -54.4%, showing an improvement compared to the 1H22A figure of -246.7%. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 0.03 million, was negative by € -0.86 million, worsening compared to the 1H22A figure, negative by € -0.25 million. The NFP was cash positive by € 0.54 million, marking an improvement compared to the 2022 end-of-year figure of € 0.25 million of debt. In light of the published 1H23A half-year results, we fully confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E value of production of € 8.15 million and an EBITDA of € -0.80 million, corresponding to a margin of -9.8%. In the following years, given the dynamics of the projects undertaken by the group, we expect the value of production to reach € 1.05 million in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € -1.00 million (corresponding to a margin of -95.2%), compared to € -0.90 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of -55.8%). On the balance sheet, on the other hand, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 2.33 million for FY23E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Arras Group based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 9.6 million. The target price is € 1.40, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |