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Research, Update 12 Jan 2023

UPDATE – 17.10.2022

Revenues as of 30 June 2022 amounted to € 30.25 million, 112.4% up compared to € 14.24 million in 1H21A. EBITDA Adjusted as of 30 June 2022 amounted to € 2.41 million, up from the previous period when it amounted to € 1.22 million. However, the EBITDA margin decreased slightly, from 8.5% of revenues in 1H21A to 8.0% at the end of the period analyzed. EBIT amounted to € 1.64 million, 63.0% up compared to the same period of 2021, when it amounted to € 1.01 million. Net Income, with a growth of 39.9%, amounted to € 0.99 million compared to 1H21A, when it amounted to € 0.71 million. The NFP amounted to € 7.99 million as of 30 June 2022, a worsening compared to 31 December 2021, when it amounted to € 4.15 million.

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we confirm almost entirely our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E revenues equal to € 55.00 million and EBITDA Adj. of € 6.00 million, corresponding to a marginality of 10.9%. For subsequent years, we expect the revenues to increase up to € 118.00 million (CAGR 21A-24E: 51.2%) in FY24E, with EBITDA Adj. equal to € 18.20 million (corresponding to an EBITDA Adj. margin of 15.4%), up compared to € 3.63 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 10.7%). In terms of the Balance Sheet, we estimate an NFP for FY24E cash positive and equal to € 5.70 million.

We have conducted the valuation of Vantea equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.0%) provides an equity value of € 169.6 million. The equity value of Vantea using market multiples is € 80.5 million (including a discount of 25%). The result is an average equity value of approx. € 125.0 million. The target price is € 10.00, rating BUY and MEDIUM risk.
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