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Research, Update 17 Apr 2023

UPDATE – 17.04.2023

The value of production came in at € 3.12 million, lower than both the € 7.55 million of the previous year (-58.6%) and our estimate of € 4.00 million. EBITDA, amounting to € 0.59 million, saw a decrease of 85.0%, compared to € 3.88 million in 2020. Similarly, due to the postponement of deliveries and lower revenues, the EBITDA margin also worsened, going from 51.4% in FY21A to 18.8% in FY22A. EBIT came in at € -0.23 million (€ 0.57 million in 2021), lower than our estimate of € 0.20 million. Net Income at the end of the period amounted to € -0.24 million. The NFP showed an improvement, settling at a value of € 1.44 million as of December 31, 2022, compared to € 2.91 million in FY21A.

In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E value of production equal to € 4.40 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 2.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 56.7%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 5.10 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 17.8%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 2.40 million (corresponding to a margin of 47.1%), up from € 0.59 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 18.8%).

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Mondo TV France based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 10.6 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Mondo TV France is equal to € 5.7 million (including a discount of 25%). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 8.1 million. The target price is € 0.04, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk
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