| At the end of 2022, the value of production stood at €37.80 million, up 6.3% on the previous year’s result (€ 35.56 million), but down on our estimate of € 41.50 million. EBITDA recorded a value of € 25.44 million, up 4.4% on 2021 (€ 24.36 million), but lower than our previous estimate of € 29.20 million. EBIT came in at € -70.10 million (€ 6.73 million in 2021), after amortization and depreciation mainly related to the impairment of library assets equal to € 95.53 million. The Net Income came in negative, equal to € -69.90 million, compared to € 5.43 million in the previous period. The NFP stands at € 12.22 million, down on the € 8.51 million in 2021. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate a value of production for FY23E equal to € 17.00 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 7.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 41.2%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 20.20 million (CAGR 23E-25E: 9.0%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 9.55 million (corresponding to a margin of 47.3%), up from € 7.00 million in FY23E (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 41.2%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Mondo TV based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 82.2 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Mondo TV is equal to € 41.8 million (including a discount of 25%). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 62.0 million. The target price is € 1.15, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |