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Research, Update 16 Oct 2023

UPDATE – 16.10.2023

In the financial statement as of June 30th, 2023, Altea Green Power communicated sales revenues of € 2.14 million, amounting to a value of production of € 10.05 million, marking a 34.0% growth compared to the 1H22A result, equal to € 7.50 million. EBITDA for the period came in at a value of € 5.17 million, recording a growth of 190.9% compared to the 1H22A result of € 1.78 million. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 0.08 million, is equal to € 5.08 million, again a significant increase of 199.8% compared to the € 1.70 million recorded in 1H22A. Net Income was also positive, amounting to € 3.46 million, versus € 1.17 of 1H22A.

In light of the half year results published in the financial statement for 1H23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a FY23E value of production equal to € 22.15 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 10.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 45.1%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 43.00 million (CAGR FY22A – FY26E: 26.6%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 22.10 million (corresponding to a margin of 51.4%), up from € 6.16 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 36.8%).

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Altea Green Power based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 128.1 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Altea Green Power is € 96.0 million (with a 10.0% discount applied). The results give an average equity value of € 112.1 million. The target price is € 6.75 (prev. € 6.20). We confirm a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk
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