| The first half of 2026 marks the beginning of a new phase in Redelfi’s growth trajectory. The granting of the first authorizations and the launch of preliminary activities for the sale process of the most advanced BESS projects signal the Group’s gradual transition from the development phase to the monetization of its pipeline. The Group closed the first half of 2026 with a value of production of € 16.14 mln, slightly up from € 15.94 mln in 1H25A (+1.2%). The improvement in profitability was more pronounced: EBITDA reached € 11.34 mln, up 8.8% from € 10.43 mln in 1H25A, with the EBITDA margin increasing to 70.3% from 65.4%. EBIT amounted to € 10.54 mln (€ 9.62 mln in 1H25A), while Net Income reached € 6.80 mln, up 14.0% from € 5.97 mln in the same period of the previous year. The financial results are in line with the guidance outlined in the 2023-2026 Business Plan. Net Financial Position (NFP), standing at € 18.71 mln (net debt), was higher than expected under the Business Plan, mainly due to the early payment of the GPA earn-out in 2025 and the postponement of cash inflows related to the Bright Storage pipeline. In light of the results published in the half-year financial report, and ahead of the Company’s upcoming release of an updated Business Plan, we leave our estimates substantially unchanged. Specifically, we expect FY26E value of production to reach € 34.50 mln, with EBITDA of € 23.70 mln, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 68.6%. Looking ahead, we expect value of production to increase to € 46.50 mln in FY28E (2025-2028 CAGR: 19.8%), with EBITDA reaching € 32.10 mln, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 69.0%. We valued Redelfi’s equity using both the DCF methodology and the market multiples of a selected peer group. The DCF valuation, which prudently incorporates an additional company-specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation, yields an equity value of € 170.31 mln. The market multiples approach results in an equity value of € 180.33 mln. The average equity value therefore stands at approximately € 175.30 mln. We set our target price at € 14.60 per share, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk assessment. |
