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Research, Update 13 Oct 2023

UPDATE – 13.10.2023

Revenues came in at € 16.70 million, up 16.4% compared to the 1H22A figure, equal to € 14.35 million. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to € -0.07 million, an increase on the 1H22A figure, negative by € 0.99 million. The Adjusted EBITDA Margin also improved, going from -6.9% in 1H22A to -0.4% in the first half-year of 2023. EBIT stands at € -0.45 million, an improvement compared to the 1H22A figure, negative by € 1.35 million. Net Income was € -0.60 million, up compared to the 1H22A figure of € -0.91 million. The NFP is equal to € 6.53 million, a slight worsening compared to the figure at the end of 2022, equal to € 5.41 million.

In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H23A, we have partially adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, for FY23E, we estimate sales of € 36.50 million, and an Adjusted EBITDA of € 0.95 million, corresponding to a margin of 2.6%. In the following years, we expect the value of sales to rise to € 50.00 million (CAGR 22A-25E: 16.4%) in FY25E, with Adjusted EBITDA equal to € 3.55 million (corresponding to a margin of 7.1%), up compared to € -0.71 million in FY22A (corresponding to an Adjusted EBITDA margin of – 2.2%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a debt NFP of € 5.20 million for FY25E.

Given the lack of comparable companies, we conducted our valuation of the equity value of Longino & Cardenal based on the DCF method alone. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 25.0 million. The target price is € 4.00, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.
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