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Research, Update 8 Dec 2022

UPDATE – 13.10.2022

Revenues amounted to € 7.34 million, essentially in line with the value of € 7.21 million recorded in the first six months of last year. EBITDA Adj. amounted to € 1.73 million, with a marginality of 23.3%, compared to 1H21A of € 2.36 million (corresponding to a marginality of 32.6%). EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 1.17 million, amounted to € – 0.30 million, compared to € 1.34 million as of 30 June 2021. Net profit amounted to € – 0.50 million, down compared to the first half of 2021, where it amounted to € 0.80 million. The NFP is cash positive and equal to € 0.75 million, an improvement compared to the figure of 30 June 2021 (cash positive for € 0.12 million).

In the light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E revenues equal to € 15.50 million and EBITDA Adj. estimated equal of € 4.05 million, corresponding to a marginality of 26.1%. For subsequent years, we expect the revenues to increase up to € 22.00 million (CAGR 21A-24E: 17.05%) in FY24E, with EBITDA Adj. equal to € 6.65 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 30.2%), up compared to € 3.82 million in FY21A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 27.0%). In terms of the Balance Sheet we estimate a cash positive NFP value for FY24E equal to € 5.42 million. 

We have conducted the valuation of ABTG’s equity value based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 41.8 million. The target price is, therefore, € 8.20 (prev. € 8.20), BUY rating and MEDIUM risk.

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