| In the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2022, Redelfi reported sales revenues of € 3.96 million. The Value of Production came in equal to € 4.51 million, more than tripling the result of the previous year. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 1.68 million, a clear improvement compared to the negative € -0.82 million as at December 31, 2021. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.55 million, amounted to € 1.14 million, up on the negative value of FY21A, with an EBIT Margin of 25.2%. Net Income was also positive, equal to € 0.27 million. In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we substantially confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E Value of Production of € 8.75 million, and an EBITDA of € 1.30 million, corresponding to a margin of 14.9%. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 43.85 million (CAGR FY22A-FY26E: 76.5%) in FY26E, with an EBITDA of € 23.55 million (corresponding to a margin of 53.7%), up from € 1.68 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 37.3%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Redelfi based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 52.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Redelfi is € 32.0 million (including a 25,0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 42.2 million. The target price is € 5.00, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |