| As of December 31st, 2025, Casta Diva Group reported a Value of Production of € 138.22 million, marking once again a double-digit increase (+12.3%) compared to € 123.13 million in 2024 and slightly exceeding our latest estimates of € 137.05 million. In terms of profitability, EBITDA amounted to € 8.69 million, substantially in line with the figure recorded at the end of the previous fiscal year. Adjusted EBITDA reached € 12.00 million (+15.7% compared to the previous period), with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.7%, up from 8.4% in 2024. EBIT stood at € 5.08 million, slightly down from € 5.16 million in 2024. Consequently, the EBIT margin declined to 3.7%, compared to 4.2% in the previous year. Conversely, Adjusted EBIT, amounting to € 8.39 million in FY25A, increased compared to € 6.76 million in 2024. Net profit came in at € 0.62 million, slightly lower than the € 0.98 million reported in FY24A. Following the publication of the FY25A Annual Report, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we forecast FY26E Value of Production at € 158.00 million and EBITDA at € 16.20 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 10.3%. For the subsequent years, we expect Value of Production to increase to € 174.00 million by FY28E (FY25A–FY28E CAGR: 8.0%), with EBITDA reaching € 19.90 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.4%), compared to € 8.69 million in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 6.3%). Regarding the balance sheet, we forecast a cash-positive Net Financial Position of € 8.95 million by FY28E. We carried out the valuation of Casta Diva Group’s equity value using both the DCF methodology and a multiples analysis based on a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which includes, for prudential purposes, a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 94.8 million. The equity value derived from the market multiples approach amounts to € 62.3 million. As a result, the average equity value stands at approximately € 78.6 million. We confirm our target price of € 3.80, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk assessment. |
