| Revenue as of June 30, 2024, stands at € 29.64 million, compared to € 34.68 million recorded in 1H23A. EBITDA, amounting to € 3.70 million, shows a decline compared to the € 9.08 million in 1H23A. The EBITDA margin, at 12.4%, also decreased compared to the margin in the first half of 2023 (25.9%). EBIT stands at € 2.44 million (€ 8.09 million in 1H23A). Net Income is € 1.59 million, compared to € 5.57 million in the first half of 2023. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position (NFP) shifts from € 0.03 million in FY23A to a debt value of € 4.31 million at the end of the first half of 2024. Given the results published in the semi-annual report for FY23A, we have partially adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the following few years. In particular, we now estimate a FY24E revenue value of € 70.00 million, and a EBITDA of € 15.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 22.3%. In the following years, we expect the value of revenues to increase up to € 91.35 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 11.0%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 22.35 million (corresponding to a margin of 24.5%), up from € 16.95 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 25.4%). On the balance sheet level, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 9.95 million for FY26E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of FOPE based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.0% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 226.2 million. Using market multiples, we calculated the equity value of FOPE to be € 195.0 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 210.6 million. The target price is € 39.00, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |