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Research, Update 5 Oct 2023

UPDATE – 05.10.2023

Total revenues amounted to € 9.00 million, marking a growth of 92.9% compared to the 1H22A figure of € 4.67 million. Excluding the contribution of In-Sane Srl, equal to € 3.74 million, revenues still showed an increase of 12.8% compared to those of 1H22A. EBITDA, equal to € 1.37 million, recorded an increase of 12.8% compared to the 1H22A figure of € 1.21 million. The EBITDA margin went from 26.0% in 1H22A to the current 15.2%, marking a contraction of 10.8%. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.18 million, stands at € 1.19 million, an increase of 12.8% compared to the 1H22A figure of € 1.05 million. The NFP remains cash positive at a value of € 1.31 million, but was down on the 2022 end-of-year figure.

In light of the published 1H23A half-year results, we fully confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY23E Revenues of € 20.60 million, and an EBITDA of € 3.95 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.2%. In the following years, we expect the value of Revenues to rise to € 26.00 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 37.9%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 5.65 million (corresponding to a margin of 21.7%), up from € 2.68 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 27.0%).

We conducted our valuation of the equity value of IDNTT based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 56.2 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of IDNTT is € 45.9 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 51.1 million. The target price is € 6.80, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.
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