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Research, Update 12 Jan 2023

UPDATE – 05.10.2022

The value of production at the end of the first half of 2022 amounted to € 9.45 million, an increase of 10.0% compared to 1H21A when it amounted to € 8.59 million. EBITDA on 30 June 2022 amounted to € 1.65 million, 7.5% up compared to 1H21A, where it stood at € 1.53 million. The EBITDA margin, in fact, slightly decreased from 17.9% in 1H21A to 17.4% in 1H22A. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 0.60 million, amounted to € 1.05 million, 34.4% up compared to 1H21A, when it amounted to € 0.78 million. Net Income amounted to € 0.58 million, 9.9% up compared to 1H21A, equal to € 0.53 million.

In light of the results published in the half-yearly report for 1H22A, we modify our previous estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY22E value of production equal to € 21.00 million and EBITDA of € 3.90 million, corresponding to a marginality of 18.6%. We expect the value of production to increase to € 30.00 million in FY24E, with EBITDA of € 6.30 million, up from € 3.14 million in FY21A. In terms of the Balance Sheet we estimate a cash positive NFP level for FY24E equal to € 0.80 million.

We have conducted the valuation of FOS’s equity value based on the DCF methodology and market multiples of a comparable companies sample. The DCF method (which in the calculation of the WACC includes for prudential purposes also a specific risk of 2.5%) provides an equity value of € 49.7 million. The equity value of FOS using market multiples is € 32.4 million (including a discount of 25%). The result is an average equity value of approx. € 41.1 million. The target price is € 6.00, rating BUY and MEDIUM risk.

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