| In the pro-forma consolidated financial statements as at December 31, 2022, Nusco Group announced net revenues of € 50.92 million, deriving, in addition to the important contribution from the newly acquired company (which performed excellently, particularly in the second half-year), above all from organic growth driven by the expansion of the franchising network, and by better diversification and customization in the commercial pipeline. EBITDA for the period amounted to € 5.20 million, generated respectively for € 3.20 million by the Windows BU and for €2.00 million by the Doors BU; EBIT, equal to € 2.54 million, was negatively affected by the high value of the item in relation to depreciation and amortization, equal to € 2.69 million, but Net Income is still positive for € 1.13 million. In light of the results published in the Annual Report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate an FY23E Value of Production equal to € 56.00 million, and EBITDA equal to € 6.50 million, corresponding to a margin of 11.8%. In the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 67.50 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 8.9%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 9.00 million (corresponding to a margin of 13.6%), up from € 5.20 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 10.2%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Nusco based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 58.7 million. The target price, therefore, is € 3.15 (prev. € 3,00), BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.. |