| Revenues amounted to € 66.77 million, compared to € 62.16 million recorded at the end of 2022. EBITDA, equal to € 16.95 million, recorded an increase from € 15.83 million in the previous year (up 7.1%). The EBITDA margin, equal to 25.4%, was in line with the 2022 margin (25.5%). EBIT came in at € 14.66 million, up from € 13.91 million in the previous year. Net Income amounted to € 10.08 million (€ 10.83 million in FY22A). The NFP, equal to € 0.03 million of debt, saw a slight decline compared to FY22A (cash positive by € 1.50 million), and was better than our expectation of € 1.54 million of debt. Given the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the following few years. In particular, we now estimate a FY24E revenue value of € 72.80 million, and a EBITDA of € 18.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 25.5%. In the following years, we expect the value of revenues to increase up to € 91.35 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 11.0%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 23.65 million (corresponding to a margin of 25.9%), up from € 16.95 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 25.4%). On the balance sheet level, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 12.30 million for FY26E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of FOPE based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.0% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 218.0 million. Using market multiples, we calculated the equity value of FOPE to be € 219.3 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 218.7 million. The target price is € 40.50, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |