| The value of production stands at € 46.08 million, compared to a value of € 41.24 million recorded at the end of 2021, and to € 47.80 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, equal to € 19.85 million, recorded an increase of 12.6%, compared to € 17.64 million in the previous year, and it is in line with our previous estimate of € 20.05 million. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 7.69 million, stands at € 12.16 million (€ 11.79 million in 2021), compared to our estimate of € 13.25 million. Net Income stands at € 8.67 million (€8.62 million in 2021), slightly down from the € 9.70 million of our previous estimate. In light of the results published in the FY22A annual report, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate a FY23E value of production equal to € 50.50 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 21.60 million, corresponding to a margin of 42.8%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to rise in FY25E to € 61.50 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 10.1%), with EBITDA equal to € 26.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 43.1%), up from € 19.85 million in FY22A, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 43.1%. Regarding the balance sheet, for FY25E, we estimate a positive cash NFP of € 3.84 million. We conducted the valuation of the equity value of Intred on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.0% in the calculation of the WACC) returns an equity value of € 434.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Intred is € 279.6 million. The result is an average equity value of approximately € 357.0 million. The target price is € 22.50, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |