Home / Research / UPDATE – 03.04.2023
Research, Update 3 Apr 2023

UPDATE – 03.04.2023

Revenues amounted to € 62.16 million, compared to € 40.31 million recorded at the end of 2021, and to € 58.50 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA, equal to € 15.83 million, recorded a strong increase compared to the € 8.79 million of the previous year (up 80.1%) and to our expectation of € 13.35 million. EBITDA Margin, equal to 25.5%, also grew, compared to 21.8% in 2021, exceeding our previous estimate of 23.0%. EBIT came in at € 13.91 million (€ 6.78 million in 2021), compared to our estimate of € 11.35 million. Net Income was € 10.83 million (€ 5.03 million in FY21A), up from the € 9.25 million of our previous estimate.
In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY23E revenues of € 70.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 17.85 million, corresponding to a margin of 25.5%. In the following years, we expect the value of revenues to rise to € 87.80 million (CAGR 22A-25E: 12.2%) in FY25E, with EBITDA equal to € 23.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 26.8%), up from € 15.83 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 25.5%). Regarding the balance sheet, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 15.22 million for FY25E.
We conducted our valuation of the equity value of FOPE based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.0% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 252.5 million. Using market multiples, we calculated the equity value of FOPE to be
€ 195.6 million (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 224.1 million. The target price is € 41.50, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk
Leggi il pdf