| In the first half of 2026, Pozzi Milano recorded strong growth in volumes, reporting a value of production of € 11.98 mln, up 14.4% compared to € 10.47 mln in 1H25A, mainly driven by the expansion of the Group’s consolidation perimeter. In terms of profitability, the semester reflects the strengthening of the Group’s corporate structure, with EBITDA amounting to € 0.48 mln, compared to € 1.07 mln in 1H25A, and an EBITDA margin of 4.1%. Profitability was affected by higher transportation and logistics costs, as well as increased personnel expenses associated with the expansion of the Group’s perimeter. At the operating level, EBIT stood at € 0.27 mln, compared to € 0.88 mln in 1H25A, while net profit remained positive at € 0.03 mln. In the second half of the year, which traditionally represents the more significant period for the sector, the Group is expected to benefit from the contribution of the newly acquired brands. In light of the results published in the 1H26A interim financial report, the acquisitions completed during the second half of the year, and the anti-dumping measures, which are expected to impact profitability in 2026 before being progressively absorbed in subsequent years, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, for FY26E, we expect a value of production of € 37.00 mln and EBITDA of € 3.00 mln, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 8.3%. By 2028, we forecast the value of production to increase to € 61.00 mln (FY25A–FY28E CAGR: 31.5%) and EBITDA to reach € 6.00 mln, with an EBITDA margin of 10.0%. We have valued Pozzi Milano’s equity using the DCF methodology. The DCF method, which prudently incorporates an additional company-specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation, yields an equity value of € 71.5 mln. We therefore set a target price of € 1.40 per share, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
