| In 1H26A, Siav Group recorded a Value of Production of € 18.41 million, up 7.3% compared to € 17.15 million in 1H25A, while revenues increased by 8.5% to € 18.23 million, supported by the progress of PNRR-related projects within the Public Administration segment and the progressive migration of the customer base to Archiflow Nova. Professional Services confirmed their position as the Group’s largest business area, with revenues of € 8.25 million, while Software reached € 7.78 million, benefiting from the growth in recurring fees. EBITDA stood at € 4.01 million, up 6.9%, with the EBITDA margin substantially stable at 21.8%. EBIT increased by 18.4% to € 1.27 million, with the EBIT margin improving to 6.9%, while Net Income declined to € 0.24 million, penalized by net extraordinary charges. From a balance sheet perspective, NFP improved to € 15.63 million of debt, compared to € 18.24 million at year-end 2025. In light of the results reported in the 1H26A interim financial report, we substantially confirm our previous estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate FY26E Value of Production at € 38.50 million and EBITDA at € 10.15 million, corresponding to a margin of 26.4%. For the following years, we expect Value of Production to reach € 49.25 million in FY28E (FY25A-FY28E CAGR: 10.6%), with EBITDA of € 13.25 million and an EBITDA margin of 26.9%. From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate FY28E NFP at € 6.78 million of debt, compared to € 15.58 million expected for FY26E. We conducted Siav’s equity value assessment using both the DCF method and a multiples-based comparison with a sample of comparable companies. The DCF valuation (which prudently includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 64.8 mln. The market multiples approach yields an equity value of € 58.0 mln. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 61.4 mln. Our target price is € 5.70, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
