| In 1H26A, Value of Production reached €15.78 million, up 34.0% YoY compared to €11.78 million in 1H25A. EBITDA amounted to €3.83 million in 1H26A, increasing by 44.0% compared to €2.66 million in 1H25A, with the EBITDA margin rising to 24.3%. EBIT reached €2.20 million in 1H26A, up 76.2% compared to €1.25 million in the first half of 2025, with an EBIT margin of 13.9%. Net Income amounted to €1.73 million in 1H26A, increasing by 65.1% compared to €1.05 million in 1H25A. From a balance sheet perspective, as of June 30, 2026, adjusted NFP, which includes approximately €2.50 million in receivables from the European Union, was cash positive by approximately €7.30 million, compared to €3.21 million at year-end 2025. In light of the results reported in the 1H26A interim financial statements and the acquisition of QMAP, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we forecast FY26E Value of Production of €30.20 million and EBITDA of €7.40 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 24.5%. For the following years, we expect Value of Production to increase to €41.00 million by FY29E (25A-29E CAGR: 13.0%), with EBITDA reaching €10.85 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 26.5%, compared to €6.07 million in FY25A, which reflected an EBITDA margin of 24.2%. Finally, we estimate FY26E Adjusted NFP, including receivables due from the European Union, whose collection is structurally deferred in accordance with EU regulations, to be cash positive by €7.57 million. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Circle based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 75.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Circle was calculated as € 97.2 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 86.1 million. The target price is € 18.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
