| In FY25A, Simone reported Revenues of €17.05 million, up 6.7% compared to €15.98 million in FY24A. EBITDA amounted to €2.54 million in FY25A, increasing by 21.9% compared to €2.08 million in FY24A. The EBITDA margin stood at 14.0%, up from 11.8% recorded in FY24A. EBIT, after depreciation, amortization, and write-downs totaling €2.14 million, amounted to €0.40 million, below the previous year’s figure of €0.75 million. Net Income in FY25A amounted to € -0.06 million, compared to a profit of €0.90 million recorded in FY24A. From a balance sheet perspective, Net Financial Position (NFP) in FY25A amounted to €5.08 million, compared to a positive cash position of €0.27 million at the end of FY24A. In light of the results published in the FY25A annual report, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY26E Value of Production at €20.50 million and EBITDA at €2.90 million, corresponding to a margin of 14.1%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase up to €22.00 million (25A–28E CAGR: 6.7%) in FY28E, with EBITDA reaching €3.20 million (corresponding to a margin of 14.5%), up compared to €2.54 million recorded in FY25A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.0%). From a balance sheet perspective, according to our expectations, Net Financial Position (NFP) could reach net debt of €2.71 million in FY26E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Simone based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 23.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Simone was calculated as € 10.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 16.5 million. The target price is € 2.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
