| In FY25A, Predict reported a Value of Production of € 8.87 million, up 20.9% from € 7.34 million in FY24A and above our previous estimate of € 8.50 million. EBITDA stood at € 0.78 million, slightly down from € 0.81 million in FY24A and below our expectations, with an EBITDA margin of 10.2%, reflecting increased investments in headcount, R&D, and go-to-market initiatives for innovative solutions. EBIT declined to € 0.21 million, while Net Income amounted to € 0.17 million, down from € 0.34 million in FY24A. From a balance sheet perspective, the Company maintained an adjusted cash-positive net financial position of € 2.04 million, compared to € 3.25 million in the previous year. Following the publication of the FY25A annual report, we broadly confirm our estimates for both the current year and the medium term. Specifically, we forecast FY26E Value of Production at € 10.00 million and EBITDA at € 1.30 million, corresponding to a margin of 14.4%. Looking ahead, we expect Value of Production to reach € 12.30 million by FY28E (CAGR 25A–28E: 11.5%), with EBITDA of € 1.75 million (15.5% margin), up from € 0.78 million in FY25A (10.2% margin). From a financial standpoint, we estimate a cash-positive net financial position of € 4.27 million by FY28E. We have conducted the equity value assessment of Predict using both the DCF methodology and multiples from a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudently includes a specific risk factor of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of € 11.5 mln. The equity value using market multiples stands at € 9.8 mln. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 10.7 mln. The target price is € 1.40, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
