| In 2025, Siav reported a Value of Production of € 36.41 million, up 7.4% from € 33.92 million in FY24A, supported by an improved revenue mix increasingly oriented towards higher value-added and more recurring solutions. Growth was primarily driven by the Group’s core software platforms and the solid performance of the Outsourcing and Professional Services lines, the latter also benefiting from the launch of new projects in the Public Administration sector. EBITDA rose to € 9.27 million (+48.0%), with a margin of 25.4%, reflecting the positive effects of the corporate reorganization initiated in 2024 and the resulting optimization of the cost structure. EBIT reached € 3.81 million, a significant improvement compared to € 1.35 million in FY24A. Net Income returned to positive territory at € 1.38 million, compared to a loss of € – 1.49 million in the previous year, while net financial position improved to € 18.24 million. Following the publication of the FY25A annual report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the medium term. Specifically, we forecast FY26E Value of Production at € 39.10 million and EBITDA at € 10.30 million, corresponding to a margin of 26.3%. Looking ahead, we expect Value of Production to increase to € 49.25 million by FY28E (CAGR 25A–28E: 10.6%), with EBITDA reaching € 13.25 million (26.9% margin), up from € 9.27 million in FY25A (25.4% margin). From a financial standpoint, we estimate net debt to decrease to € 6.53 million by FY28E. We conducted Siav’s equity value assessment using both the DCF method and a multiples-based comparison with a sample of comparable companies. The DCF valuation (which prudently includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 61.5 mln. The market multiples approach yields an equity value of € 43.0 mln. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 52.3 mln. Our target price is € 5.70, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
