| At the end of the first half of 2025, the value of production amounted to € 5.71 million, up 62.4% compared to € 3.52 million as of June 30th, 2024. This increase reflects the strong expansion in volumes, which represented the main driver of the positive performance during the period. In this context, EBITDA stood at € 1.78 million, with an EBITDA margin on the value of production of 31.1%, improving from 30.0% in the first half of 2024, when the indicator amounted to € 1.05 million. EBIT totaled € 1.00 million, up 27.6% compared to € 0.78 million in the first half of 2024. The EBIT margin, equal to 17.5%, showed a slight decrease compared to 22.3% in the comparable period. Net profit for the half-year amounted to € 0.34 million, compared to € 0.45 million as of June 30th, 2024. On the balance sheet side, the Net Financial Position was cash positive for € 0.31 million, compared to € 1.10 million as of December 31st, 2024. In light of the results achieved in the first half of 2025 and considering, on the one hand, the longer lead times experienced with certain key clients that led to a temporary slowdown in some projects, and on the other, the growth prospects linked to the investments made during the year, whose effects are expected to extend beyond the plan horizon, we are revising our estimates for both the current fiscal year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate a FY25E value of production of € 12.00 million and an EBITDA of € 3.75 million, corresponding to a margin (calculated on the value of production) of 31.3%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to € 18.00 million (CAGR 24A–27E: 26.1%) in FY27E, with an EBITDA of € 5.80 million (corresponding to a margin of 32.2%), up from € 3.40 million in FY24A. We have carried out the equity value assessment of Franchetti based on the DCF methodology. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of approximately € 88.7 million. The target price is € 9.40, with a BUY rating and a MEDIUM risk profile. |
