| The Value of Production in 1H25A amounted to €9.00 million, up 11.2% compared to €8.10 million in 1H24A. In 1H25A, Adjusted EBITDA stood at €-3.30 million (compared to €-4.17 million in 1H24A), while the EBITDA Margin improved to -36.7% from -51.5% in the previous period. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of €0.62 million, amounted to €-4.63 million in 1H25A, slightly improving from €-4.67 million in 1H24A. Net Income was €-3.60 million, compared to €-3.59 million recorded in the first half of 2024. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position (NFP) was cash positive at €11.90 million, improving from a net debt position of €1.01 million as of December 31, 2024. In light of the results published in the 1H25A Half-Year Report, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we now estimate a FY25E Value of Production of €39.70 million and an EBITDA of €1.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 4.3%. For the following years, we expect the Value of Production to increase to €45.50 million by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 9.5%), with EBITDA reaching €4.35 million (corresponding to a margin of 9.6%), showing strong growth compared to €-0.74 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin: -2.1%). From a balance sheet perspective, we expect an improvement in the Net Financial Position (NFP), which according to our estimates will move from a net debt of €1.01 million in FY24A to a net debt of €0.24 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Emma Villas based on the DCF method and on multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of €23.0 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Emma Villas was calculated as €17.4 million (including a 25.0% discount). The average equity value is approximately €20.9 million. The target price is € 2.90, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
