| In 1H25A, Promotica recorded consolidated production value of € 67.84 mln, up 9.9% compared to € 61.72 mln in 1H24A. EBITDA amounted to € 5.47 mln, with an EBITDA margin of 8.0%, improving from 7.5% in the same period last year. EBIT reached € 4.89 mln, up from € 3.86 mln in 1H24A, while Net Income stood at € 2.71 mln, a sharp increase from € 1.98 mln recorded in the first half of 2024. On the balance sheet side, NFP was negative at € 20.97 mln, compared to € 19.28 mln at the end of 2024. In light of the results published in the 1H25A interim report, we have revised our estimates for the current and following years. Specifically, we now forecast FY25E production value of € 142.00 mln and EBITDA of € 13.30 mln, corresponding to a margin of 9.5%. For the following years, we expect value of production to increase to € 174.00 mln by FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 21.1%), with EBITDA reaching € 18.90 mln (corresponding to a margin of 11.0%), up from € 6.03 mln in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 6.3%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a cash-positive NFP of € 0.06 mln by FY27E. We conducted Promotica’s equity valuation using a DCF methodology (which prudently includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation), resulting in an equity value of € 128.03 mln. We confirm our target price of € 7.50, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |
