| In 1H25A, the Group reported a Value of Production of € 17.15 mln (+3.0% vs € 16.69 mln), supported by the launch of PNRR-related projects in the Public Administration sector. EBITDA amounted to € 3.75 mln (+22.5% vs € 3.06 mln), with an EBITDA margin of 21.9% (vs 18.3%). EBIT stood at € 1.07 mln (vs € 0.73 mln), with an EBIT margin of 6.3%. Net Income returned to positive territory at € 0.40 mln (vs € -0.48 mln), benefiting from improved operations and non-recurring items, including the gain on the disposal of Mitric S.r.l. and the reduction in extraordinary costs compared to the prior year. Net Financial Position improved to € 17.58 mln of net debt (vs € 20.88 mln at FY24A), driven by the reduction in both short-term and medium-to-long-term bank debt. In light of the results published in the 1H25A half-year report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate FY25E Value of Production of € 35.50 mln and EBITDA of € 7.75 mln, corresponding to a margin of 21.8%. For the following years, we expect Value of Production to grow to € 44.80 mln in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 9.7%), with EBITDA of € 11.45 mln (margin of 25.6%), up from € 6.27 mln in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 18.5%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate FY27E Net Financial Position of € 11.70 mln of net debt. We conducted Siav’s equity value assessment using both the DCF method and a multiples-based comparison with a sample of comparable companies. The DCF valuation (which prudently includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 49.9 mln. The market multiples approach yields an equity value of € 48.4 mln. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 49.2 mln. Our target price is € 5.35, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
