| In 1H25A the Group reported revenues of € 43.02 mln, up 45.1% compared to € 29.64 mln in 1H24A, driven by strong performances in key international and emerging markets, as well as by the positive contribution of the Italian market. EBITDA amounted to € 10.60 mln, nearly tripling the € 3.70 mln reported in 1H24A, with an EBITDA margin of 24.6% (12.5% in 1H24A), supported by higher volumes and production efficiency improvements. EBIT reached € 9.10 mln, a sharp increase compared to € 2.44 mln in the same period, with an EBIT margin of 21.0%. Net Income stood at € 5.63 mln, more than tripling the € 1.59 mln recorded in 1H24A. On the balance sheet side, the NFP was cash positive at € 3.24 mln, broadly in line with year-end 2024, confirming the Group’s solid financial position. In light of the results published in the 1H25A half-year report, we are revising our estimates both for the current year and for the following years. In particular, we now estimate FY25E revenues of € 87.00 mln and EBITDA of € 19.40 mln, corresponding to a margin of 22.3%. For the subsequent years, we expect revenues to increase to € 110.80 mln in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 14.7%), with EBITDA of € 25.50 mln (corresponding to a margin of 23.0%), up from € 14.80 mln in FY24A (EBITDA margin 20.2%). On the balance sheet side, we estimate a cash positive NFP of € 13.38 mln in FY27E. We conducted the valuation of FOPE’s equity value based on the DCF method and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk of 1.0% in the WACC calculation) results in an equity value of € 265.8 million. The equity value of FOPE based on market multiples is € 241.8 million. The average equity value therefore amounts to approximately € 253.8 million. We set a target price of € 47.00, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
