| The results of the Promotica Group confirm, as expected, the growth in volumes both in Italy and abroad (VoP +14.6% yoy), but reflect higher personnel, freight, and logistics costs, incurred to strengthen the commercial structure in anticipation of the further expansion that began in 2025. EBITDA for the period stands at €6.03 million, -22.7% yoy and with a margin of 6.3% (9.2% in 2023), while Net Income amounts to €1.56 million compared to €3.35 million recorded in the previous year. Despite the delay of some significant campaigns and the increase in inventory to optimize procurement, there is a clear improvement in terms of NFP, which is expected to continue in the coming years as a result of the forecasted volume growth. The Company also announced the distribution of an ordinary dividend of €0.09 per share. Considering the completed fiscal year, the new campaigns acquired over the past 12 months, and the investments undertaken, we update the forecast for the 2025–2027 period, incorporating into our estimates a significant increase in sales revenues starting from 2025. We expect FY25E value of production of €142.0 million with EBITDA of €13.3 million, corresponding to a margin of 9.5%, and revenue growth up to €174.0 million (CAGR 24A–27E: 21.4%) in FY27E, with EBITDA of €18.9 million and a margin of 11.0%. We also revise upward our equity value assessment of Promotica, conducted using the DCF methodology including a specific risk of 2.5%, to €127.9 million. The target price is therefore €7.50 (prev. €6.50). We confirm BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
