| The Value of Production for FY24A amounted to €34.66 million, representing a 6.0% increase compared to €32.71 million in FY23A, and broadly in line with the previously estimated figure of €35.85 million. In FY24A, EBITDA amounted to €-0.74 million, compared to €1.91 million in FY23A, while the EBITDA Margin declined to -2.1% from 5.8% in the previous year. EBIT, after depreciation and amortisation of €1.13 million, amounted to €-1.87 million in FY24A, down from €1.26 million in FY23A. Net Income stood at €-1.50 million, compared to €0.94 million in the previous year. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position (NFP) amounted to €1.01 million as of 31 December 2024, a deterioration compared to the cash-positive NFP of €3.20 million at year-end 2023. In light of the results published in the FY24A report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY25E value of production at €39.70 million and EBITDA at €2.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 5.3%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase to €48.00 million (CAGR 24A-27E: 11.5%) in FY27E, with EBITDA amounting to €4.35 million (corresponding to a margin of 9.1%), up from € – 0.74 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of -2.1%). From a balance sheet perspective, according to our expectations, the Net Financial Position (NFP) could reach a debt level of €0.04 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Emma Villas based on the DCF method and on multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of €28.7 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Emma Villas was calculated as €16.0 million (including a 25.0% discount). The average equity value is approximately €22.3 million. The target price is € 3.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
