| In FY24A, the Group recorded a production value of €57.78 million, up 4.2% compared to €55.44 million in 2023. In 2024, consolidated EBITDA amounted to €0.94 million, a marked improvement compared to the negative result of € -0.05 million recorded in FY23A, and above our previous estimate of €0.65 million. The return to positive operating profitability (EBITDA margin of 1.6%) reflects a combination of cost-containment measures and a progressive improvement in operational efficiency following the merger. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of €2.64 million, amounted to € -1.70 million, representing an improvement compared to the € -1.97 million reported in 2023. In FY24A, Net Income amounted to € -1.63 million, representing an improvement compared to the net loss of € -2.25 million recorded in 2023. Finally, Net Financial Position (NFP) stood at €15.17 million in debt as of FY24A, marking a deterioration compared to the €11.61 million recorded in 2023. In light of the results published in the FY24A annual report, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current and the following years. In particular, we now estimate an FY25E value of production of € 87.50 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 4.8%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 164.00 million (CAGR 24A-28E: 29.8%) in FY28E, with EBITDA equal to € 14,50 million (corresponding to a margin of 8.8%), up from € 0,94 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 1.6%). On the balance sheet, we estimate a Net Financial Position (NFP) of €15.09 million in debt for FY25E. Concerning capital expenditure, we estimate total Capex for the period 2025E–2028E to amount to approximately €31.00 million. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Destination Italia based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 30,60 million. The target price is € 1.45, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
