| In 2023, revenues from sales and services closed at € 6.15 million, making a 29.7% increase from € 4.74 million in 2022. At the end of the 2023 fiscal year, the EBITDA stands at € 2.54 million, showing growth compared to the €1.84 million in 2022 (+37.9%) and remaining substantially consistent with our previous estimates. The period’s EBITDA margin (calculated on revenues) consequently amounts to 41.2%, a clear increase from both the 38.8% of the previous fiscal year and our estimated 40.2%. EBIT was € 2.03 million, up from € 1.63 million in FY22A. At the end of 2023, Net Profit stood at € 1.24 million. The NFP as of December 31, 2023, was at € 0.42 million in debt, declining from the € 0.16 million (cash positive) recorded in FY22A. In the light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we are re-calculating the estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY24E value of production equal to € 10.00 million and an EBITDA equal to € 3.70 million, corresponding to a margin of 40.2%. For the following years, we expect the production value to increase up to € 16.50 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 33.0%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 6.70 million (corresponding to a margin of 40.6%), up from € 2.54 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin by 41.2%). At balance sheet level, we estimate a cash positive NFP for FY26A of € 1.30 million. Given the lack of comparable companies, we conducted our valuation of the equity value of Franchetti based on the DCF method alone. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 53.8 million. The target price is € 7.70, BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |