| The value of production amounted to € 7.16 million, compared to a value of € 5.22 million reported for 1H23A, marking an increase of 37.0%. EBITDA, equal to € 1.96 million, saw an increase of 127.3% compared to the value of € 0.86 million recorded for the first half of the previous financial year. The EBITDA Margin, equal to 27.4%, also came in higher compared to the 1H23A figure of 16.5%. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 0.45 million, stands at € 1.51 million (€ 0.44 million in 1H22A). Finally, on the balance sheet, we note a slight improvement in the NFP, which amounted to a cash positive € 2.00 million, compared to the cash positive value of € 1.82 million as of December 31, 2022. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY23E value of production of € 14.60 million, and an EBITDA of € 3.10 million, corresponding to a margin of 21.2%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 23.10 million (CAGR 22A-26E: 20.8%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 5.50 million (corresponding to a margin of 23.8%), up compared to € 1.96 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 18.1%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Circle based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 33.7 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Circle is € 28.3 million (including a 25.0% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 31.0 million. The target price is € 7.70, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |