BREAKING NEWS – 02.08.2023

In its press release of July 24th, 2023, Circle SpA, a group specialized in the analysis of processes and the development of solutions for the digitalization of the port sector, in intermodal logistics and in international consultancy on the Green Deal and the Energy Transition, announced the launch of two new digital projects in the fields of planning and supply chain optimization and control: MTO Planning Optimization, and Best Trucker Selection. In light of the announcement of the launch of the two new digital solutions, MTO Planning Optimization and Best Trucker Selection, we have adjusted our estimates concerning the Group for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY23E Value of Production equal to € 14.60 million, and an EBITDA equal to € 2.80 million, corresponding to a margin of 19.2%. Over the following years, we expect the Value of Production to rise to € 23.10 million (CAGR 22Y-26E: 20.8%) in FY26E, with EBITDA equal to € 5.10 million (corresponding to a margin of 22.1%), up from € 1.96 million in FY22A (corresponding to an EBITDA Margin of 18.1%).  We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Circle based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 27.6 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Circle was calculated as € 26.4 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 27.0 million. The target price is €6.70, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk.

Leggi il pdf