| In 1H25A, the Group recorded a value of production of € 59.44 million, up 2.1% compared to € 58.22 million in 1H24A. EBITDA stood at € 4.04 million, up 10.5% from € 3.66 million in the previous period, with a margin of 6.8% (vs 6.3% in 1H24A), driven by more efficient operational management and the synergies developed among the acquired companies. EBIT reached € 2.96 million, an increase of 20.7% compared to € 2.46 million in 1H24A. Net income amounted to € 2.13 million, improving by 5.5% from € 2.02 million in 1H24A. Net financial position went from €9.53 million in debt at the end of 2024 to €9.91 million in debt as of June 30, 2025, reflecting the absorption of working capital to support growth. In light of the results published in the half-year report for 1H25A, we almost entirely confirm our estimates both for the current year and for the coming years. Specifically, we estimate FY25E value of production at € 137.05 million and EBITDA at € 12.15 million, corresponding to a margin of 8.9%. For the following years, we expect value of production to increase to € 168.25 million in FY28E (CAGR 24A–28E: 8.1%), with EBITDA reaching € 17.95 million (corresponding to a margin of 10.7%), compared to € 8.78 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 7.1%). From a balance sheet perspective, we estimate a cash positive net financial position of € 6.69 million in FY28E. We carried out the equity value assessment of Casta Diva Group based on both the DCF methodology and multiples of a peer group of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, in the calculation of WACC, prudently includes a specific risk factor of 2.5%) yields an equity value of € 78.3 million. The equity value of Casta Diva Group using market multiples amounts to € 50.1 million. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 64.2 million. The target price is € 3.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
