| In 1H25A, ISCC Fintech reported a more moderate performance compared to 1H24A, reflecting a decline in volumes across its core activities, mainly due to the postponement of several major sale transactions to the second half of the year. As a result, revenues for 1H25A amounted to € 2.73 million, down from € 4.68 million in 1H24A. EBITDA stood at € -0.37 million, compared to € 1.39 million in 1H24A, with an EBITDA margin of -13.4%. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization of € 0.49 million, amounted to € -0.86 million, versus € 0.90 million in the previous year, while Net Income was € -0.87 million. From a financial standpoint, as of 30 June 2025, the Net Financial Position was € 0.09 million cash positive, compared to € 0.59 million cash positive at 31 December 2024. In light of the results published in the Half-Year Report for 1H25A, we have updated our estimates for the coming years, adopting a more prudent approach aimed at a limited and non-structural downsizing of growth, consistent with a possible recovery in the second half of the year. The new forecasts indicate an expected production value of € 9.15 million in 2025 and € 12.55 million in 2027 (CAGR FY24A–FY27E: 12.7%). The estimated EBITDA is € 2.00 million in 2025 and € 4.80 million in 2027, with a progressive increase in profitability from 27.8% in 2024 to 38.7% in 2027. From a financial perspective, we estimate for FY27E a cash positive Net Financial Position of € 2.97 million. We carried out the equity value assessment of ISCC Fintech using the DCF methodology and the Excess Return method: the DCF, which includes a specific risk of 2.5%, leads to an equity value of € 49.4 million, while the Excess Return method produces a value of € 43.4 million. The resulting average equity value is approximately € 46.4 million. The target price is € 3,60 (prev. € 4.50), with BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
