| As expected, the Vimi Group closed 2024 with an 8.4% decline in value of production, from € 61.35 million in 2023 to € 56.19 million, as a result of macroeconomic dynamics and destocking strategies implemented by clients, particularly in the second half of the year. In the first half of 2025, the Group recorded consolidated revenues of €28.30 million, a slight decrease of 4.1% compared to €29.47 million in 1H24A, reflecting a still weak demand environment in international markets. Despite the modest decline in revenues, the half-year shows encouraging signs on the customer portfolio, with the acquisition of new orders (+11.0% yoy) bringing the backlog to €25.10 million. EBITDA improved, reaching €4.34 million in 1H25A, up +21.6% compared to €3.57 million, with an EBITDA margin of 15.3% (12.1% in 1H24A), thanks to production efficiency measures and product mix rationalization. EBIT, after depreciation and amortization for €2.29 million, amounted to €2.05 million (+66.5% vs. 1H24A), while Net Income stood at €1.09 million, up from €0.43 million in 1H24A. At the balance sheet level, the NFP improved from €20.73 million in debt as of December 31, 2024, to €20.37 million in debt in 1H25A. In light of the results published in the 1H25A half year report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate a 2025 value of production of €57.80 million with EBITDA of €7.90 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.0%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to grow up to €63.90 million in FY27E (CAGR 2024–2027: 4.4%) and EBITDA of €9.40 million, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 15.0%. At the balance sheet level, we expect an NFP of €15.64 million in debt in FY27A. We conducted the valuation of Vimi Fasteners’ equity value based on both the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which, for prudential purposes, includes in the WACC calculation a specific risk premium of 2.5%) yields an equity value of €33.10 million. The equity value of Vimi Fasteners derived from market multiples stands at €32.10 million. As a result, the average equity value is approximately €32.60 million. The target price is €2.40, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
