| In 1H25A, the Group recorded a Value of Production of € 15.84 million (+51.0% vs € 10.46 million in 1H24A). The HVAC BU reached revenues of € 7.16 million (+220.0%), driven by acquisitions and organic growth, while the Waste/Circular Economy BU generated € 2.26 million (+27.0%), and the Network & Warehouse Management BU remained stable at € 6.23 million. EBITDA was € 2.80 million (+36.0%) with a margin of 17.7%, EBIT was € 1.73 million with a margin of 10.9%, and Net Income grew 37.0% to € 1.11 million. NFP rose to € 5.27 million of net debt (vs € 3.42 million in FY24A), reflecting HVAC-related acquisition investments. In light of the results published in the 1H25A half-year report, we partially confirm our estimates for both the current and future years. Specifically, we forecast FY25E Value of Production of € 33.00 million and EBITDA of € 5.30 million (margin of 16.1%). For the following years, we expect Value of Production to reach € 43.10 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 21.3%), with EBITDA of € 7.40 million (margin of 17.2%), up from € 4.33 million in FY24A (margin of 17.9%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a cash-positive NFP of € 1.22 million for FY27E. We have assessed Lindbergh’s equity value based on both the DCF methodology and a sample of comparable companies’ market multiples. The DCF method (which prudently includes a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 91.3 million. The market multiples approach results in an equity value of € 50.8 million. The average equity value is therefore approximately € 71.1 million. The target price is set at € 7.30, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
