| In 1H25, the Group reported revenues of € 18.57 million (-15.7% vs € 22.02 million in 1H24), affected by the slowdown in the European and American manufacturing industries. EBITDA stood at € 0.66 million (vs € 3.23 million), penalized by lower volumes and higher operating costs, particularly personnel expenses (+9.9%), which included € 0.86 million in severance incentives and € 0.55 million in non-recurring items. Adjusted EBITDA, net of these charges, was € 2.07 million, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.5%, while Adjusted EBIT amounted to € 1.05 million (vs € 1.91 million), with a margin of 5.3%. Net Income showed a loss of € 0.78 million (vs a profit of € 1.31 million). The adjusted Net Financial Position worsened to € 7.53 million of net debt (vs € 5.62 million at the end of 2024), reflecting € 1.90 million of investments in new assembly and testing lines at Zola Predosa. In light of the results published in the 1H25 half-year report, we have revised our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we estimate FY25E revenues of € 35.00 million and EBITDA of € 3.75 million, corresponding to a margin of 10.7%. For the following years, we expect revenues to increase to € 42.00 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 1.6%), with EBITDA of € 5.60 million (margin of 13.3%), up from € 3.64 million in FY24A (margin of 9.1%). At the balance sheet level, we forecast FY27E Net Financial Position of € 4.32 million of net debt. We conducted the equity value assessment of Marzocchi Pompe based on the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which prudentially includes a specific risk premium of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of € 35.2 mln. The equity value of Marzocchi Pompe based on market multiples stands at € 32.7 mln. This results in an average equity value of approximately € 34.0 mln. The target price is set at € 5.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
