| In 1H25A, the Group reported revenues of € 16.84 million, slightly down compared to € 17.29 million in 1H24A. The Parent Company remained the main contributor with € 12.52 million (74.4% of total), while the Hong Kong subsidiary grew by 30.2% to € 1.70 million. Dubai declined to € 1.19 million (-22.3%), and New York to € 0.41 million, while Il Satiro Danzante posted € 0.91 million (+11.0%). The consolidated contribution margin stood at € 4.14 million (vs € 4.35 million), with an improvement for the Parent Company (23.2% vs 22.5%) and solid performance from Hong Kong. EBITDA was essentially neutral at € -0.01 million (vs € 0.29 million), with Adjusted EBITDA of € 0.11 million (vs € 0.27 million). Excluding the New York subsidiary, EBITDA would have reached € 0.52 million (margin of 3.2%). EBIT amounted to € -0.26 million, while Net Income was negative at € -1.33 million. At the balance sheet level, Net Financial Position stood at € 6.03 million of net debt. In light of the results published in the 1H25A half-year report, we revise our estimates for both the current year and the following years. Specifically, we forecast FY25E Value of Production of € 35.50 million and EBITDA of € 1.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 3.4%. For the following years, we expect revenues to grow to € 37.65 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 0.7%), with EBITDA of € 1.45 million (margin of 3.9%), up from € 0.88 million in FY24A (EBITDA margin of 2.4%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate FY27E Net Financial Position of € 4.73 million of net debt. Due to the lack of directly comparable companies, we have assessed Longino & Cardenal’s equity value using only the DCF method. The DCF model (which prudently includes a 2.5% specific risk premium in the WACC calculation) yields an equity value of € 13.8 million. The target price is € 2.20, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk profile. |
