| In FY24A, Simone reported a Value of Production of € 17.58 million, representing a 6.8% decrease compared to the € 18.87 million recorded in FY23A, and falling short by 8.2% relative to the previous report’s estimate of € 19.15 million. EBITDA for FY24A amounted to € 2.08 million, marking a decline from € 3.02 million in FY23A (-31.1%). EBIT, after depreciation and amortization totalling € 1.33 million, amounted to € 0.75 million, down from € 1.98 million in the previous year. Net income amounted to € 0.90 million, below the € 1.21 million recorded in FY23A, reflecting the lower operating profitability for the year. Net income amounted to € 0.90 million, below the € 1.21 million recorded in FY23A, reflecting the lower operating profitability for the year. Estimates and Valuation Update In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate an FY25E value of production of € 17.60 million, and an EBITDA of € 2.40 million, corresponding to a margin of 13.6%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 19.40 million (CAGR 24A-27E: 3.3%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 4.10 million (corresponding to a margin of 21.1%), up from € 2.08 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.8%). From a balance sheet perspective, based on our estimates, the Net Financial Position (NFP) is expected to reach a cash positive value of € 1.33 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Simone based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 24.3 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Simone was calculated as € 14.8 million (including a 25.0% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 19.5 million. The target price is € 2.60, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
