| The Value of Production amounted to €22.93 million, an increase from the €19.48 million recorded at the end of 2023 but a decline from the €26.00 million estimated in our previous report. EBITDA totalled €2.64 million, representing a decrease of 21.1% compared to €3.35 million as of 31 December 2023, and falling short of our forecast of €4.45 million. Consequently, the EBITDA margin stood at 11.6%, a reduction compared to the FY23A figure of 17.3%. EBIT, after depreciation and amortisation totalling €2.02 million, stood at €0.63 million in FY24A. Net Income amounted to €0.25 million, compared to €0.49 million in FY23A, marking a decline of approximately -48.6% yearon- year. From a balance sheet perspective, the Net Financial Position (NFP) was cash positive at approximately €1.36 million, compared to a similar cash-positive position of €1.79 million in the previous year. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the following years. In particular, we estimate an FY25E value of production of € 28.00 million, and an EBITDA of € 4.45 million, corresponding to a margin of 16.0%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to reach € 35.75 million (CAGR 24A-27E: 16.0%) in FY27E, with EBITDA equal to € 7.25 million (corresponding to a margin of 20.4%), up from € 2.64 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.6%). From a balance sheet perspective, we expect an improvement in the Net Financial Position (NFP), which, according to our estimates, will increase from a cash positive value of € 1.36 million in FY24A to a cash positive value of € 1.44 million in FY25E. We conducted our valuation of the equity value of ABTG based on the DCF method. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.50% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 35.0 million. The target price is € 6.50, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
