| At the end of FY24A, the value of production amounted to €14.87 million, standing below both the result recorded in FY23A* (€22.58 million, -34.1%) and our previous estimates of €18.10 million. EBITDA for FY24A amounted to €0.62 million, marking a decrease of -69.5% compared to €2.05 million recorded in the previous period and reiterated in our estimates for FY24A. The EBITDA margin dropped from 9.1% in FY23A* to 4.2% in FY24A, well below our expectations, which projected a margin of 11.3% for the year. EBIT, after depreciation and write-downs amounting to €0.23 million, stands at €0.39 million, down from €1.31 million in FY23A* and below our estimate of €1.90 million. The EBIT margin also decreased from 5.8% in FY23A* to 2.6% in FY24A. Net Income at the end of the period was equal to €0.04 million, down from the result of €0.32 million in FY23A and lower than our estimate of €1.00 million, although in this case it also remained in positive territory. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY24A, we are revising our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. Specifically, we estimate a value of production for FY25E equal to €18.50 million and an EBITDA of €1.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 7.3%. For the following years, we expect the value of production to increase up to €25.50 million in FY27E (CAGR 24A–27E: 19.7%), with EBITDA reaching €2.90 million (corresponding to a margin of 11.4%), growing from €0.62 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 4.2%). At the balance sheet level, we estimate a net financial position (NFP) of debt amounting to €0.43 million for FY27E. We conducted the valuation of Vivenda’s equity value using both the DCF methodology and the multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (which includes, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the WACC calculation) returns an equity value of €17.5 million. Vivenda’s equity value based on market multiples results in €13.1 million. This leads to an average equity value of approximately €15.3 million. The target price is €1.65, with a BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |
