| Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti closed 2024 with revenues of €17.68 million, broadly in line with both the FY23A figure of €17.79 million. EBITDA amounted to €2.10 million, reflecting a slight decrease of 8.3% compared to €2.29 million as of 31 December 2023. The EBITDA margin stood at 11.9%, down from 12.9% in FY23A. EBIT amounted to €1.64 million in 2024, marking a 9.5% decline compared to €1.81 million in 2023. As a result, Net Income amounted to €1.04 million (compared to €1.11 million in FY23A), representing a modest year-on-year decrease of approximately 6.9%. Net Financial Position (NFP) showed a significant improvement, moving from €1.22 million of debt in FY23A to €0.52 million of debt in FY24A. In light of the results published in the FY24A annual report, we almost entirely confirm our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we estimate FY25E revenues at €19.50 million and EBITDA at €2.35 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.1%. For the subsequent years, we expect revenues to increase to €22.50 million (CAGR 24A-27E: 8.4%) in FY27E, with EBITDA amounting to €2.90 million (corresponding to a margin of 12.9%), compared to €2.10 million in FY24A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.9%). From a balance sheet perspective, we are revising our previous NFP estimates, also in light of the proposed dividend distribution. We carried out the valuation of the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 23.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Saccheria F.lli Franceschetti was calculated to be € 17.3 million (including a 25% discount). The results give an average equity value of approximately € 20.3 million. The target price is € 2.30, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |
