| The value of production came in at € 51.95 million, compared to a value of € 36.32 million reported at the end of 2021, and € 56.40 million estimated in our previous report. Adjusted EBITDA, equal to € 3.83 million, saw an increase of 5.3% compared to the € 3.63 million of the previous year, and was below our previous estimate of € 6.00 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin, equal to 7.6%%, was lower than the figure for the previous year of 10.5%, and our estimate of 10.9%. EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 1.07 million, came in at € 2.20 million (€ 2.18 million in 2021), down on our previous estimate of € 2.60 million. The NFP showed a deterioration from € 4.15 million to € 7.14 million of debt. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY22A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY23E value of production equal to € 72.00 million, and an Adjusted EBITDA equal to € 5.20 million, corresponding to a margin of 7.4%. Over the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 142.00 million (CAGR 22Y-25E: 39.8%) in FY25E, with an Adjusted EBITDA equal to € 10.70 million (corresponding to a margin of 7.6%), up from € 3.83 million in FY22A (corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.6%). We conducted our valuation of the equity value of Vantea based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 77.9 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Vantea is equal to € 76.7 million (including a discount of 25%). The result gives an average equity value of approximately € 77.3 million. The target price is € 6.00, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |