| Revenues came in at € 15.16 million, down 11.9% compared to € 17.20 million in FY22A, and to the € 14.80 million estimated in our previous report. The company’s EBITDA, at € 1.68 million, fell 24.2% compared to the FY22A value of € 2.21 million, but was up on our previous estimate of € 1.55 million. Margins also saw a decrease, with the EBITDA margin falling from 12.9% in FY22A to 11.1% in the financial year just ended. Net Income stands at € 0.20 million, down compared to the € 0.30 million of our previous estimate. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate 2024E revenues of € 15.50 million, and an EBITDA of € 2.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 12.9%. In the following years, we expect revenues to rise to € 16.60 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 3.1%) in 2026E, with an EBITDA of € 2.45 million (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 14.8%), up from € 1.68 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 11.1%). On the balance sheet, we estimate an NFP of € 2.77 million for FY24E. We conducted the valuation of GEL’s equity value based on the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 2.5% in the calculation of the WACC) returned an equity value of € 16.7 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Gel came in at € 16.4 million (including a 25% discount). The result is an average equity value of approximately € 16.6 million. The target price is € 2.30, with a BUY rating, and MEDIUM risk. |