| The value of production stands at € 50.52 million, compared to a value of € 46.08 million recorded at the end of 2022, and to € 49.75 million estimated in our previous report. The EBITDA, equal to € 22.53 million, recorded an increase of 13.5%, compared to € 19.85 million in the previous year, and above our previous estimate of € 21.45 million. The EBIT, after amortization and depreciation of € 9.86 million, stands at € 12.67 million (€ 12.16 million in 2022), compared to our estimate of € 9.45 million. Net Income stands at € 8.19 million (€8.67 million in 2022), slightly down from the € 6.25 million of our previous estimate. In light of the results published in the annual report for FY23A, and the imminent finalization of the acquisition of the company Connecting Italia Srl, we have adjusted our estimates for both the current year and the coming years. In particular, we now estimate an FY24E value of production of € 57.45 million, and an EBITDA of € 24.00 million, corresponding to a margin of 41.8%. In the following years, we expect the value of production to rise to € 72.45 million (CAGR 23A-26E: 12.8%) in FY26E, with an EBITDA equal to € 32.20 million (corresponding to a margin of 44.4%), up compared to € 22.53 million in FY23A (corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 44.6%). We conducted the valuation of the equity value of Intred on the basis of the DCF method and multiples of a sample of comparable companies. The DCF method (including, for prudential purposes, a specific risk of 1.0% in the calculation of the WACC) returns an equity value of € 364.4 million. Using market multiples, the equity value of Intred is € 286.4 million. The result is an average equity value of approximately € 325.5 million. The target price is € 20.50, BUY rating and MEDIUM risk. |